Investigation of Georgia's Current Demographic Dynamics, Forecasting, and Development of an Information-Analytical Model for Demographic Security Management

Abstract

The subject of this research is the current demographic crisis, depopulation trends, structural asymmetry of external
migration flows, and regional depopulation processes in Georgia. The primary objective is to develop a comprehensive
information-analytical model supporting demographic security management, verify forecasting scenarios for the 2035–2050
horizon, and substantiate the institutional mechanisms of the State Strategy for Demographic Security and National Resilience
prepared by the Center for Public Initiatives and National Resilience. Methodologically, the study relies on empirical datasets
from the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), and the Public Services
Development Agency of the Ministry of Justice. Retrospective comparative analysis across the 1989–2026 period, decomposition
of demographic processes, and non-linear mathematical forecasting models are utilized. The research establishes that if the
current dynamics persist, the country will enter a phase of demographic collapse by 2035. This will subsequently manifest in
the population decreasing to 2.6 million, the annual natural decline reaching 45,000 people, the intensification of societal aging,
and the structural substitution of the native Georgian ethnos by foreign immigration flows, resulting in every fourth resident
being a foreign national. A strategic plan has been developed, providing for the financial motivation and social stimulation of
family formation and reproduction, the formation of demographic resources, the return of emigrants and repatriates, special
projects for the resettlement and restoration of depopulated territories, the implementation of digital management systems for
demographic processes, the establishment of a state coordination commission, and other measures. The research results are
intended for executive and legislative government agencies, national security services, the President's Institute, and scientific
analytical organizations specializing in socio-demographic research.